THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
***************************************************************************
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month. See our website for details).
Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites). These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email. The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below. Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates.
Dow Jones Signal 
(NEW DOWN-TREND SIGNAL)
(NEW DOWN-TREND SIGNAL)S&P 500 Signal (NEW DOWN-TREND SIGNAL)
(NEW DOWN-TREND SIGNAL) NASDAQ Signal (NEW DOWN-TREND SIGNAL)
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often.
(NEW DOWN-TREND SIGNAL) LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often.
L-T Dow Jones Signal 
L-T S&P 500 Signal
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities. This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical. While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD.
Short-term (3-6 Months)
Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs)
Long-term (10yrs-30yrs)
Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs)
Long-term (10yrs-30yrs)
COMMENTARY:
Buckle Up!
(NOTE: EACH OF THE MAJOR INDEXES "WEEKLY" MACD SIGNALS CHANGED AFTER LAST WEEK'S STOCK SELL-OFF, TO A "DOWN-TREND" (SEE ABOVE SIGNAL ARROWS. THIS COULD BE SIGNFICANT!)
Hold on folks, the ride could get a bit bumpy for a while! It looks like we were correct saying that the stock market could be in the early stages of a "crash" - and we are sticking to that assessment. That "thud" the stock market hit a week ago last Friday, WAS something hitting the hull, and the market's "hull" has a hole it and taking in water. In fact, it was a strong enough "hit" that all three of the major stock indexes, the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ trend signals changed from an "UP" trend to a "DOWN" trend! This could be significant if this shorter-term 'weekly' interval MACD remains in a down-trend. If the markets recover significantly this week, that weekly interval MACD could reverse, and go back to an "UP" trend. But, that's a big "if". The point is that we are "on notice" that, for now, things don't look good for stocks and they could go lower. If they recover, fine. But, last week's signal changes are your "early warning" or "heads up", and tell us to be very cautious now.
We'll have to see how fast the boat sinks or if the hole is patched (government actions again) while underway, but there's a growing recognition that this may not be the only "hit" to the stock market hull. Sure, there are lots of smug soothsayers still trumpeting an economy "recovery", but their voices are sounding off-key and more difficult to hear. Recent moves in China to curtail lending (deflationary), and U.S. government moves to re-implement the much more restrictive Glass-Steagall Act (a "good" thing in our opinion), a rising U.S. dollar, problems with corporate revenues, have begun to take their toll. Then, a 'knockout' punch was delivered when news hit that support in the Congress for a re-appointment of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve was waning (see comments below). The week ended with the Dow Jones Industrials' worst week since March, 2009, losing over 435 points. Even gold and silver were knocked lower, due in part to: investors needing to liquidate precious metals positions to meet margin calls; central bank market operations; and also due to the rising dollar. In our opinion, this is merely moving gold from weaker hands, into the hands of those who know that, ultimately, when things get really bad, gold is the only exchange medium you can rely upon - period.
Another 'echo' from the 1930's depression surfaced last week. The government proposed last week the reimplementation of depression-era banking laws (Glass-Steagall) that separate commercial banking from investment banking (underwriting and securities business). This sent a cold, hard, shiver down the stock markets' back, sinking the Dow 213 points that day alone. While we think this would be a move in the right direction, the talk smells of politics, i.e. punish the banks for outlandish salaries, like seen at Goldman Sachs, after they, and other major money-center banks that were forced to take money under the government's tax-payer funded TARP program. Never mind that Congressional mandates created the problem in the first place, by paving the way for too-much housing construction and sales, ginned up by the Federal Reserves extremely low interest rates, to create the housing and debt bubble. The reasons are many, and it doesn't matter now (except to prosecutors!) and investors have to look ahead to the potential fallout and negotiate the coming financial crises.
Besides China curtailing credit, which is deflationary, more credit contraction came in the form of FHA raising the downpayment on home loans, and raising premiums to insure mortgages. Even though this is a step in the right direction, the FHA's moves aren't tight enough however, and won't bring back the 'conservative' lending needed at this time. Until lenders "get religion", defaults and foreclosures will continue to rise, "deflating" home values. Overall, the credit contraction is spreading, and reflects the 'deflationary' depression trend we've been warning about, and as seen back in the 1930's. As this trend evolves, more investors will finally notice it and position their investments, but you'll be ahead of the trend. Later, the media will catch on (by then it's too late though).
Speaking of the financial media, we've noticed that it is (finally) beginning to do some investigative reporting, despite the influence of the powerful monied interests on Wall Street upon the media. This shift could be important, and could finally focus the American public on the shennadigans in the capital markets, banking, and finance, but it also means that a harsher light could prove detrimental to long-held beliefs about markets, stocks, bonds, companies, and (we think) highly over-priced stock values. But, it's taking the press way too long, and a crash in the market could hasten their desire tell the real story. An example of them dragging their feet, is the recent populist anger to moves to "fire" the current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The battle over the Fed Chair's reappointment is looking like the country's most recent populist outcry, similar to the resounding message sent to Congress in September, 2008, when Americans firmly said "NO" to giving money to bail out the banks. At that time, Congress voted down the bailout bill, but then several Congressmen were specifically literally "threatened" that if they didn't pass that bailout bill our financial system faced collapse, and martial law would be declared. A similar full court press seems to be going on concerning Bernanke's reappointment. We know this could be a stretch, but we find it odd that the stock market is falling precipitously while: the bills and support to audit the Federal Reserve is gaining steam; Bernanke is losing support for a reappointment in Congress; Greenspan came out last week saying 'Bernanke should be reappointed immediately'; White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs says essentially that Bernanke has to be appointed in this crisis; Senators Dodd and Gregg (Democrat and Republican) came out last week in a joint press conference saying that Bernanke should be reappointed; well-known Wall Street personalities all praise Bernanke's handling of the recent crisis; and then Warren Buffett said in an interview on CNBC last week, that if Bernanke wasn't going to be reconfirmed, "just tell me a day ahead of time so I can sell some stocks." Sorry to say, all this sounds a bit coordinated and far to 'coincidental' and appears coordinated. Bottom-line, the whole financial system stinks to high heaven, and something has to give. We think it will give way to the downside.
Another problem facing the American investor (and all people) is dramatically increased taxes and fees. Several states, especially California and Illinois, are in a severe financial 'cash-flow' crisis, meaning that taxes and other revenues are not sufficient to meet expenditures. That means expenses (programs and budgets) will have to be cut, and taxes will have to go up. Higher taxes is exactly NOT what the people, and the economy needs now; especially an economy that is over 70 percent consumer spending based. But, that won't stop local, state, and ultimately federal governments from raising taxes, fees, and any other revenue source they can, to keep the gravy train running.
Perhaps as an emphasis for all the above, last week we noticed that the baby-boomers favorite play toy, Harley-Davidson Motorcycles has fallen on bad times, reporting a LOSS for the fourth quarter 2009; it's first quarterly loss in over 16 years. This could be a sign that the baby-boomer's are growing up and putting away their toys, meaning the next 'big thing' will be selling off the toys, houses, and 'downsizing' their possessions and budgets. Remember, demographics say that whatever the baby-boomers do, it happens in a "big" way.
Bottom-line, we think it's time to 'hold-on tight" and the ride could get rather bumpy from here. As for stocks specifically, The stock chart technicals are still at extremely over-bought levels, and remain ripe for a pullback or crash. Watch for more negative news coming out over the next week or two, and then watch for the market's reaction to it. How the markets react will be important in the near-term, but we think the ultimate conclusion is set.
That's our opinion.
Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio.
J.E. Rapp,
Editor-in-Charge
(PS - WE WORK HARD TO PUT TOGETHER INFORMATION YOU SIMPLY WON'T FIND ANYWHERE ELSE! We don't charge for this newsletter, but we do ask that you send it on to as many people as you can, and ask them to subscribe. It's the only way we can help people as we navigate what will likely be a historic plunge into economy chaos.
Also, please consider subscribing to our Advanced MACD signals, for market timing that beats the "buy and hold" method, and the "regular" MACD seen in the trend signal changes at the top of this free newsletter; all for only $4.95 a month. We have some announcements regarding extra features we'll be introducing for our paid subscribers [in addition to the Advanced MACD signals]).)
LEGAL STUFF:
Copyright © 2005-2010 MMR Publishing, LLC All Rights Reserved
All contents of this email publication are subject to Copyright law and other Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other user information. No specific investment advise is given, intended, or implied. For full details regarding our Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other information, see our website at:
The content on this newsletter is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this website and newsletter are those of the author(s) and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may or may not have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. Please refer to our website for a full description of our Terms, Conditions and Disclaimers, relative to our website and any of our publications and communications. Monday Morning Review content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Editor-in-Charge, J.E. Rapp, for reprint permission in other media.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may or may not have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. Please refer to our website for a full description of our Terms, Conditions and Disclaimers, relative to our website and any of our publications and communications. Monday Morning Review content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Editor-in-Charge, J.E. Rapp, for reprint permission in other media.
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: The information contained in this message, and any files transmitted with it, is confidential and may be legally privileged. Further, this email is for informational and entertainment purposes only, not intended as specific investment advice, and is intended for the use of the named recipient only. This email is never sent unsolicited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately notify the sender by replying to this email or calling us at (512) 266-8775, and delete the material from any computer.
No comments:
Post a Comment