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THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
*************************************************************************** (The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month. See our website for details). Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites). These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email. The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below. Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates. Dow Jones Signal  S&P 500 Signal NASDAQ Signal
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often. L-T Dow Jones Signal 
L-T S&P 500 Signal
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities. This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical. While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD. Short-term (3-6 Months)
Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs)
Long-term (10yrs-30yrs) COMMENTARY: Don't Get Mad - Be Happy! (Well, Sort of) It's easy to get mad or frustrated about the wretched economy, high unemployment, incompetent government (or worse!), rising crime, losses in our retirement accounts, and on, and on, and on. This isn't a "personal advice" column, but we feel the need to point out from time to time that investing is a marathon, not a sprint. During rough times like these, it's important to take it easy on yourself and not go over all the 'regrets' about all the things you should have done. Believe us, in the field of investing like many others, you'll make mistakes. Just look at Warren Buffett for example: He's made lots of mistakes investing - and some really big ones! And what's his usual response? Typically, it's something like, 'Oh well, we made a mistake on that one due to ..., and hopefully we won't make that mistake again'. Despite his many mistakes, he's a billionair e many times over. Our point is that, this is a very tricky market and one that few have seen before. True, it has characteristics of other markets, like the one in 1973-1975, or the 1930's, but this one is unique - in a bad way. So, don't be too hard on yourself if you've missed getting out in time to avoid crashes, or missed bear market rallies. In our opinion, investors need to come to grips with a fundamental fact: We are in the early stages of a depression. If that's the case, you have a great opportunity to 'be alert' to this possibility, and you'll have a chance to get mentally prepared, think about it, and do things you think will be necessary if you believe it's happening. This advance knowledge will help your 'mental health', and better prepare you if it does hit. Most Americans were totally unprepared for the Great Depression, coming off the Roaring '20's. They had no idea w hat was to come. It sounds somewhat perverse, but there are great opportunities that present themselves in a depression, for those that saw it coming and got financially prepared. And, during any coming hard times always remember that the birds still sing, the sky is still blue, kids play baseball and football, and life goes on. It will be important, we think, to stay mentally strong as well as fiscally fit. But, even in the Great Depression, many starved or went for long periods of time without housing, food and security (think Grapes of Wrath). How handle the coming hard times is up to you (this is an information newsletter, and we don't give specific advice), but our newsletter should be one of the 'tools' in your investment toolbox (and please tell others - that's why we do this, it's our mission). We admit that our newsletter isn't for everyone. We hear periodically from subscribers that say it's too difficult to read all the bad news, and why don't we highlight the good news. Well, to be honest, that's not our job. Our job each week is to provide the most recent MACD trend signals, and then bring you, in boiled down fashion, what's happening and what could happen that the trend signals don't yet reflect. In other words, our commentary and analysis gives you a "head's up" if you will. Most of the other newspapers, magazines and TV will give you all the 'happy talk', nonsense stories you can handle. For example, if you've heard the news lately, you've probably heard that the economy is showing signs of "recovery". However, all you have to do is talk with people on the street and 9 out of 10 will tell you they think something 'bad' is coming, and we are not in recovery mode. Where's the disconnect? Generally speaking, it's the media, politics, and Wall Street. If you look closely at corporate earnings coming out, revenues (top line growth) are faltering, and net profits are struggling. Many corporations are "beating" Wall Street analyst estimates (an old game), but they are doing it largely through spending reductions and employee layoffs. Staff reductions and reduced work hours are increasing, as companies struggle with a breathtaking halt in consumer spending. This is a self-reinforcing vortex, not unlike what happened in the 1930's Great Depression, and watch for it to pick up steam. But, you won't hear any of this from economists, analysts on Wall Street, or even in academia since their jobs are on the line if they sound too negative or pessimistic. And, the media has a difficult time telling the truth since corporations buy the ads that keeps them on the air. And what about Wall Street? There aren't any complaints there since what's not to like about free money from the government, courtesy of the taxpayer? So, it's easy to feel confused hearing how 'good' things are in the economy, despite what you see in your personal observations, or the information and analysis we provide each week. This isn't easy, not even for us. It is morally deflating to see the deterioration at all levels of our economy and government, and BELIEVE US, the rot runs very deep. We don't burden you with all the information we run across, or some of it which is quite scary. If we did, it would be like drinking from a firehose, so we boil it down into digestible pieces in each issue of this newsletter. If you like a peak a bit deeper down the 'rabbit hole' on what's really going on, you may want to get our $4.95 a month weekly newsletter. In there we include things like Advanced MACD signals, and we may include charts, and other data. Then, we'll go into some nitty gritty info, that we usually don't cover in this free issue (you can try the paid newsletter free for a month to see if you like it). In case you're questioning the 'recovery' talk in the media, here's a sampling of headlines crossing our desk, divided by subject. We think you'll see our point: UNEMPLOYMENT - Home Depot to Cut 1,000 Jobs
- Ericsson Cutting 1,500 More Jobs
- Wal-Mart's Sams Club Farms Out 10,000 Jobs
- (many, many others like this...)
HOUSING
- Government Easing Away Supports for Mortgages
- Existing Home Sales Plummet 16.7% In December
- Home Prices Dip in November, Case-Shiller Says
- TARP Overseer Says Bank Bailout Program Has Mixed Results (TARP Stabilized System, but Bailed out Banks Lend Less; More Foreclosures Soon)
And, how's the economy doing? If you listened to the news you heard that the fourth quarter GDP was 5.7 percent. Fantastic, right? Well, not really. As usually, the numbers were highly cooked, and when you toss out stimulus payments, government transfer payments (Medicare, Social Security, unemployment checks, etc.), the real GDP was negligible. Then, if you take out defense spending it gets even worse. Finally, taking a look at inventory replacement you can see that businesses ran on lean inventory (in view of the weak economy) and had to re-order, but they are taking a huge gamble they can sell what they ordered (they probably listen to the talking heads on financial TV).
Bottom-line, we don't see any real evidence that the economy is recovering, and we don't see it recovering any time soon. The trend signals (see the weekly interval MACD above) could be an early signal that things could get "hairy" in the stock market. And, we've been on top of the trend in interest rates, telling subscribers that rates are headed up. So, stay tuned and we'll keep you updated. Oh, and please forward our newsletter to everyone you think will be interested, and if you know anyone in the PR or publications arena, let them know they can post our newsletter, so long as we are given credit with our url (so everyone can get signed up for the latest developments). Things are going to get pretty crazy, so pray, breath deep, go have fun with the family, and look at the oncoming troubles as a two-sided coin: one side 'crisis' and other side 'opportunity'. So, don't worry. Instead think about our information above, research it yourself (if you think we got something wrong let us know!). And then, enjoy life, especially in the knowledge you've got an idea what's going to happen, and you've done something about it. That's our opinion. Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio.
J.E. Rapp, Editor-in-Charge
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