THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
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(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month. See our website for details).
Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites). These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email. The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below. Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates.
Dow Jones Signal 
S&P 500 Signal
NASDAQ Signal
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often.
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often.
L-T Dow Jones Signal 
L-T S&P 500 Signal
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities. This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical. While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD.
Short-term (3-6 Months) Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs)
Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs) COMMENTARY:
Today's Investment Environment
MACD Outlook
MACD indicators shown above reflect that the stock market is still in a downtrend in the short-term, but still in an uptrend on a longer-term basis. So, for the near-term, the markets are poised to go lower, and until the shorter-term MACD turns positive, that's the bottom-line. This keeps you out of the markets (if that fits your investment plan) in case there's a correction or crash. Then, when this shorter-term MACD turns positive, it would correlate with the longer-term positive MACD, creating a 'safer' environment to buy equities again. That is, presuming a 'normal' operating environment; which clearly we are NOT in these days! This is why we offer our assessment of the world as it relates to, and potentially affects, our investments. Let's do that now (below).
Investment Environment
In a word: terrible. Anyone following our newsletters knows, that in our opinion we've been in an economic depression since roughly October 2008. It isn't visible to most people, just as other depressions weren't clearly visible in the 1920-21 depression, and prior to the subsequent Great Depression of the 1930's. There were many early signs, particularly in the 1930's depression, though most of these indicators were ignored or passed off as unique circumstances. For example, by early 1929, unemployment was high and rising, while farmers were going out of business. Later, after the crash, the government instituted huge stimulus programs, while the Federal Reserve tightened the money supply, with both of these actions only prolonging the depression (not letting businesses fail quickly, with subsequent reinvestment as weaker companies are replaced with new venture capital). It took a world war, and bringing the factories back to life to pull us out of that depression.
We think our nation is repeating history and following a similar (though not exactly the same) pattern. Back in October 2008, we recognized that the stock market crash that began in 2007 was only the beginning of the 'popping' of the greatest Debt Bubble in world history. Debt and credit crashes nearly always result in at least a recession, particularly when there's a housing bubble and crash. And, this housing speculative bubble was historic, and when combined with a "government gone wild" on spending, the two together made it a cinch that our nation was facing a deflationary depression. Only this time, the numbers were much bigger than in the 1930's; we had no real manufacturing base; we import over 65 percent of our food; and most Americans are suburbanites and could survive without grocery stores. Then, adding insult to injury, Congress was bullied into "givin g" $700 billion of taxpayer money to the banks and investment firms, to reimburse them for their bad investments and speculative activities. Even though the American people said "no way", it passed anyway. Now, we're seeing many tens of trillions of taxpayer dollars propping up business that should be allowed to fail, that could clear out the weaker companies, making way for new venture capital. This is how recessions, a necessary part of the economic cycle, are turned into depressions.
These and other factors told us that not only were we in a deflationary depression, but there wasn't anyone in Washington D.C. (ok, maybe a couple of Congressman) to say "No" to Wall Street and the Federal Reserve. Then, despite some Tea Party activity showing a modicum of public reaction, that movement has faded and is now being actively subverted by the political system. So, we have an unfolding economic depression, a Congress beholden to Wall Street and the power brokers, major news media that's sold out to their sponsors and afraid to do some real investigative journalism, and a public that is largely apathetic. Is this the type of investment environment you'd invest your hard-earned savings? Some would, and in fact most Americans do have their money in the stock market, and "hope" that their investments go up. Yet, an increasing number of people are seei ng things for what they are and like the idea of diversification. Given all the above, timing this stock market has never been more important, making the MACD one of the most important tools in anyone's investment tool kit. Knowing when to be in the market, and when to be out, could be one of the most important decisions we can make...especially these days. That is why we constantly ask everyone to tell your friends and neighbors to at least sign up for our free newsletter and not get surprised by the stock market again.
We'll leave you with a short satire that sums up one of the major problems in our country, i.e. the lack of manufacturing and what's it's done to our productive capacity and how it's affected unemployment. Enjoy!
Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio.
J.E. Rapp,
Editor-in-Charge
(One more thing: You may want to try our Advanced MACD newsletter with it's "Hard Core Analysis" this week, where we take a look at some specific signs that tell us things are heating up, like Charlie Munger's rather startling summary of our country's economy, a look at new home sales, consumer confidence, a startling statistic regarding bank lending, and a shocking look at what one U.S. senator admits to the press. You'll find all this and more in our other newsletter, and you can get it for FREE for 30 days. Give it a try, and you'll see the kind of information you won't find condensed any where else! Sign up today, and we'll send you today's revealing issue of the Advanced MACD and "Hard Core Analysis" )
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