March 8, 2010 Free Edition of the Monday Morning Review

THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS   *************************************************************************** (The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month.  See our website for details).   Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites).  These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email.  The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below.  Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates.   Dow Jones Signal       S&P 500 Signal            NASDAQ Signal        LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS (The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month). These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month.  As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole.  Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often.   L-T Dow Jones Signal   L-T S&P 500 Signal       L-T NASDAQ Signal      INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK   These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities.  This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical.  While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD.   Short-term (3-6 Months)   Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs)         COMMENTARY:   Today's Investment Environment   MACD Outlook   Several of our indicators, besides the MACD shown above, are telling us that the stock market could be peaking near-term, though that doesn't mean it can't go higher first.  On an intermediate basis, these indicators suggest there could be several weeks more of a rising stock market overall.  If stocks continue to rise, it could push the weekly interval MACD into positive territory, generating an uptrend signal, however, IT HAS NOT CROSSED POSITIVE YET! (sorry, we have to emphasis this so there's no misunderstanding).  Until the MACD lines actually cross, there isn't a new trend.  Only speculators and angels should venture into the great unknown.  Most investors are conservative and will want to wait for a signal change.    Investment Environment   Still terrible.  You wouldn't know it however from the news, that promotes the government's political spin that 'America is on the mend'.  No it isn't: it's getting worse, and all that 'happy talk' isn't fooling people anymore.  Try it yourself -- ask anyone how they feel about their current situation, and how they expect the economy to go in the future.  THAT'S your answer; not what the politicians tell you.  Question: How do you know when a politician is lying?  Answer: When their lips are moving.  And, what about 'speculative fever'?  It's alive and well again as investors are once again reaching for high-yield plays in commodities, bonds, etc. and the VIX (fear indicator) is reaching a low not seen for a long time (indicates complacency and a bad sign for stocks).   Most Americans now realize that the government lies (take 'official' unemployment statistics for example), the media lies, and business has been taking advantage of Americans for decades (why else do we need consumer protection laws?).  For stocks specifically, the major markets have gone nowhere in the last ten years (1999 to 2009) and are called the "lost decade".  So, what about "Buy and Hold", "Save for the Long-Term", and "Don't time the market"?  How did those investment "truisms" coming out of Wall Street work out for people?  Exactly. In fact, a recent article by Paul B. Farrell at MarketWatch summed it up quite nicely: Wall Street is a "Losers Game".  We know you may be thinking, "Maybe I shouldn't have any money in stocks then?"  Perhaps, but that's up to you.  Our job is to present the facts as we see them, ask you to do your own research, and then make your own decisions.  We are not financial advisors, but being a former bank examiner, I have learned to find the weaknesses in a situation, summarize them, and assess the impact on the asset or, in the case of our newsletters, the impact on the economy and investment markets in general.  We HIGHLY RECOMMEND you get our $4.95 a month Advanced MACD Analysis newsletter with our "Hard Core" analysis.  Last week's was scary, and this week's is equally jaw-dropping.  Plus, we could use your support, and at less than $5 a month, it could be the one 'view' in the economy and markets that provides that nugget of information that could make or save your investments.  Here's the link to the article we mentioned above by Paul B. Farrell, and we'll leave you with this thought:  In these unusual, stressful times, consider investment options you might not have considered in the past.  Unusual t imes call for unusual investment planning.        8 Reasons Wall Street Loses Another 20% in this Decade, by Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch.     Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio.      J.E. Rapp, Editor-in-Charge     (One more thing:  Please help support our effort to bring this kind of vital information to as many Americans as possible.  You can do this by subscribing to our Advanced MACD newsletter with it's "Hard Core Analysis", and it's even FREE for 30 days.  After that, it's only $4.95 -- less than a cup of fancy coffee.  If times are tough, we ask that you tell others about our newsletters in email, blogs, and even friends and neighbors.  In this way, more American's can "win" against the CASINO called Wall Street.  Thank you. )              LEGAL STUFF: Copyright © 2005-2010 MMR Publishing, LLC    All Rights Reserved