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THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
*************************************************************************** (The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month. See our website for details). Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites). These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email. The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below. Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates. Dow Jones Signal 
S&P 500 Signal NASDAQ Signal
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often. L-T Dow Jones Signal
L-T S&P 500 Signal
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities. This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical. While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD. Short-term (3-6 Months) Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs) COMMENTARY:
We are keeping it short this week. The regular MACD's have accurately predicted stock market activity since turning positive and reflecting an "UP" trend. Though there are many warning signs, the markets seem to want to 'climb the wall of worry', while the media bleats on about the economic "recovery". As Gerald Celente says, "This isn't a recovery, it's a cover-up!" We agree, but it is hard not to join in on the stock market party when it keeps going higher. Our concern? We dig into the numbers behind the "news" and find quite a different picture. Also, when this market turns, it could fall fast, hard, and without warning. Pressure for that eventual outcome is building, so we believe extreme caution is warranted, despite the positive indicators. Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio. J.E. Rapp, Editor-in-Charge LEGAL STUFF: Copyright © 2005-2010 MMR Publishing, LLC All Rights Reserved
The content on this newsletter is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this website and newsletter are those of the author(s) and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may or may not have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. Please refer to our website for a full description of our Terms, Conditions and Disclaimers, relative to our website and any of our publications and communications. Monday Morning Review content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Editor-in-Charge, J.E. Rapp, for reprint permission in other media. All contents of this email publication are subject to Copyright law and other Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other user information. No specific investment advise is given, intended, or implied. For full details regarding our Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other information, see our website at: |
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THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
*************************************************************************** (The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month. See our website for details). Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites). These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email. The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below. Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates. Dow Jones Signal
S&P 500 Signal NASDAQ Signal
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often. L-T Dow Jones Signal
L-T S&P 500 Signal
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities. This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical. While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD. Short-term (3-6 Months) Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs) COMMENTARY:
Well, our intuition seemed to be well-tuned, as Friday's scary market showed. All was well with the fairy tale called the U.S. stock market, until the news and allegations regarding fraud at Goldman Sach's was released during the day. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil suit accusing Goldman Sachs and one of its vice presidents of defrauding investors in connection with a mortgage derivative. The SEC alleges Paulson & Co. assisted Goldman Sachs in putting together a mortgage-backed derivatives package, with Paulson & Co. making bets against that very package, and reaping major profits (around $1 billion) when the housing market collapsed. What's worse, Goldman Sachs didn't inform investors of the way this arrangement was constructed, or that the company assisting in the package construction ( Paulson & Co.) had bet against that very asset. These SEC charges hit the markets like (sorry for the analogy) a scab had been picked on a deep and festering wound called corruption on Wall Street, and perhaps the rot is about to pour out. Another over-used analogy would be the 'pin' that popped the latest bubble in the stock market (since March 2009). How far does this kind of alleged horrible activity go, and how will it affect mortgage backed security values, swaps, collateral agreements, and the balance sheets of those companies holding these assets, etc., etc., etc.??? The implications, if this spreads, are quite pro found. The public is already disgusted with the trillions of taxpayer's money going to bail out the financial institutions, and now seeing specific charges coming out helps cement their belief that Wall Street is rotten and needs "reform". Stepping back however, quite a few commentators are detecting a whiff of potential politics, given that these charges (and the stock market sell-off) comes just as the government is considering bills on financial reform. With the stock market and banks performing well (before Friday), where's the need for reform? Reform can only get through if there's a crisis, crash, or other financial calamity...then 'reform' be demanded by the public. Having crammed health care down the nation's throat (against 80 percent who said "no"), to take on "financial reform" next, a "crisis" might just be the ticket as many political anal ysts are remarking. Is all this the "scary" thing we talked about last week? Perhaps, but we think this is just the tip of the iceberg. Could it be the tipping point? Perhaps, but there's no way to know what the market makers, insiders, and Wall Street institutions will do at this point, i.e. try to shore things up, bring in the Federal Reserve, temporarily close the markets, or, simply try to get what they can, while they can, and then let it all go...(We have some specific warnings in this week's issue of the Advanced MACD newsletter). According to James Bianco, at Bianco Research says that if you're like many investors, you are watching from the sidelines, or buying bonds and emerging market funds. A recent Heard on the Street article in the Wall Street Journal said that U.S.-stock mutual funds buying remains anemic. It's a bit ironic to see the financial papers, magazines and TV say "economic recovery", "buy stocks!", or "Look! The Dow is over 11,000!", yet even mutual funds have been taking a pass. Friday was a reminder that all is not wine and roses, and indeed, it may be a case of severe hangover, and lots of painful thorns for those grabbing at this market. How bad could things get? We'll have more in-depth review and analysis of all this and more in our Advanced MACD newsletter. Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio. J.E. Rapp, Editor-in-Charge LEGAL STUFF: Copyright © 2005-2010 MMR Publishing, LLC All Rights Reserved
The content on this newsletter is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this website and newsletter are those of the author(s) and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may or may not have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. Please refer to our website for a full description of our Terms, Conditions and Disclaimers, relative to our website and any of our publications and communications. Monday Morning Review content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Editor-in-Charge, J.E. Rapp, for reprint permission in other media. All contents of this email publication are subject to Copyright law and other Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other user information. No specific investment advise is given, intended, or implied. For full details regarding our Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other information, see our website at: |
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THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
*************************************************************************** (The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month. See our website for details). Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites). These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email. The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below. Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates. Dow Jones Signal
S&P 500 Signal NASDAQ Signal
LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month. As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole. Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often. L-T Dow Jones Signal
L-T S&P 500 Signal
L-T NASDAQ Signal
INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities. This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical. While rates could move counter to the signals shown below from time to time, we show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD. Short-term (3-6 Months) Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs) COMMENTARY:
According the regular MACD, the markets are in a clear "upward" trend, and all systems are "go". Yet, we all know that the economy isn't 'recovering', unemployment is growing, real estate is about to see another wave of foreclosures, and higher taxes are on the way (just to top things off!). So, if things are really so bad, why are stocks going up? For the same reason stocks went up through 1999 and into March 2000. All during that time, the regular MACD said it was time to be in stocks -- and it was, until the regular MACD said to get out early in 2000. The point is, that the stock market is not a perfect barometer of what's going on underneath the numbers -- numbers that are often fudged and are in some cases fabricated. So, what's an investor to do? Read all the business magazines? Won't help -- most are run by controlled media that also have Wall Street advertisers and there's no way you'll hear any potential bad news from them. What about the daily newspapers? Forget it. They are also bought and paid for by the same corporate interests, advertisers, and others that "control the message". Television? Same problem, only worse since there's so little actual "news" that makes it through all the commercials. (That's where the Monday Morning Review comes in -- please, please tell everyone you know about our publication...) So what's the answer? The MACD! It's a simple mathematical program that takes the raw price data, filtering it through a series of calculations that show what the trend really is -- not influenced by positive or negative spin. When it says the trend is up, despite all the bad news, you simply have to 'hold your nose' and go into stocks. Conversely, when it says the trend is down, forget all the hype and temptation to "make a few more bucks", and simply get out. That's it. What we described above is the way to invest in "normal" operating markets. There's an old saying on Wall Street, that anytime someone says "it's different this time", they are probably wrong (for bull or bear market arguments). But, what if it isn't 'different' this time, and what if the investing game itself is about to end? That's something we suggest everyone contemplate now, as we see Greece in the final stages of collapse (Fitch downgraded their debt to BBB, Negative Outlook). The U.S. is not far behind Greece in terms of deficit spending (11 percent vs. Greece's 12.5 percent), and with the hiccup in the 10-year U.S. Treasury market last week, it tells us that was a 'tremor' not to be ignored. What do we mean by an 'end' to the investing game? What if all markets were closed -- period? Sure, perhaps you bought some index puts, or even put LEAP options and "won big". How are you going to collect if the markets are suspended -- indefinitely? You could be rich in paper values, but practically speaking 'broke' with no cash, gold, silver, food, medicine, fishing equipment, home or other necessities. What then? These are the kinds of possibilities we ask our subscribers to consider as things 'get wobbly' in the markets, the economy, and in politics (which influence everything). Sure, the regular MACD says everything's fine now, but remember a few things. First, the MACD won't get you out at the very top, though it does tell you when to absolutely 'bail out'. Prices must first come down a ways, and then it will cross negative reflecting a downtrend. Second, and this isn't a technical term or anything scientific, but we have what could be called a 'feeling', 'sense' or 'gut' notion that things are about to get scary. Sure, it isn't quantifiable and can't even be defended logically, but if you feel the same way, don't ignore your instincts. Many, many stories show how people didn't get on planes that later crashed, get in cars that crashed, take the subway that was doomed, etc. This is a good time to use your intuition, while letting MACD be your 'searchlight' telling you when to absolutely get to safety. We see some rough times ahead, possibly soon (like the Greece situation spreading), so buckle up, and keep those arms and legs inside the cabin!
Take care, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio. J.E. Rapp, Editor-in-Charge LEGAL STUFF: Copyright © 2005-2010 MMR Publishing, LLC All Rights Reserved
The content on this newsletter is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this website and newsletter are those of the author(s) and may contain errors or omissions.
NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.
The author may or may not have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility. Please refer to our website for a full description of our Terms, Conditions and Disclaimers, relative to our website and any of our publications and communications. Monday Morning Review content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Editor-in-Charge, J.E. Rapp, for reprint permission in other media. All contents of this email publication are subject to Copyright law and other Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other user information. No specific investment advise is given, intended, or implied. For full details regarding our Conditions of Use, Disclaimers, and other information, see our website at: |
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