Tuesday, June 1, 2010

May 31, 2010 Free Edition of the Monday Morning Review

THIS WEEK'S STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
 

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(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month.  See our website for details).
 
Shown below are the current "Weekly" signals for the Dow Jones Industrials, S&P 500, and NASDAQ using the "regular" MACD (as is available for free on many investment websites).  These can change quickly, but can also go weeks or months between changes, so be sure to check each week's email.  The Longer-Term "Monthly" signals (rarely change) are shown below.  Then, at the bottom we provide our big trends for interest rates.
 
Dow Jones Signal      
S&P 500 Signal         
 
NASDAQ Signal       



LONGER-TERM (L-T) STOCK MARKET TREND SIGNALS
(The signals shown below are the "regular" MACD signals, NOT the Advanced MACD signals, which are available separately for only $4.95 a month).
These longer-term signals are based on 'monthly' intervals for the "regular" MACD, meaning that signals can only change at the beginning of the month.  As such, these signals can go for months or years between changes - BUT when they do change it pays to take heed, since it signals a potentially VERY IMPORTANT change in trend or direction for the market as a whole.  Subscribers that don't change their investments very often will usually follow these signals since they don't change very often.
 
L-T Dow Jones Signal  

L-T S&P 500 Signal      
L-T NASDAQ Signal     

INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK
 
These interest rate outlooks are based on the price and yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities.  This kind of information is helpful for those investing in certificates of deposit, applying for a loan, and other reasons where the interest rate outlook is critical.  The recent stock market volatility has driven investors towards U.S. Treasury bonds, taking rates down a bit.  However, as faith in U.S. debt falls, investors could decide that all debt, including Treasury bonds, is flawed or even worthless, and gold could be the 'currency' of last resort.  This means that Treasuries would have to have higher interest rates to reflect the increasing risk of owning the.  The arrows below show the LARGE trends for these rates, based on the monthly interval MACD, which means that daily or even weekly moves won't show up immediately.
 
Short-term (3-6 Months)   Medium-term (2yrs-5yrs) Long-term (10yrs-30yrs)  
 
 
 
COMMENTARY:
 
THE MACD'S SAY "BEWARE" ! ROUGH SEAS AHEAD (UP AND DOWN)!  
 
SIGNAL AND MARKET ANALYSIS
(Published Tuesday, June 1, 2010 due to Federal Holiday)
 
Again this week, the operative term is "TRUST THE MACD'S".  Market watchers can analyze all day, and not be able to tell you as simply and easily what the MACD says at-a-glance.  Right now, the weekly interval MACD's clearly say the trend is down.  Longer-term monthly interval MACD's still say the trend is up, but it takes them a while to eventually reflect the 'changed' trend.  Other technical indicators say that some rallies are possible, but the fundamentals tell us otherwise.
 
Meanwhile, the 'flight to quality' as a result of the problems in Greece particularly, and Europe generally, is driving investors to the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds.  This is driving down interest rates; for now.  Take advantage of this for now, since we expect this move to reverse, and the MACD's on interest rates still reflect an upward trend bias.  With a current debt of $13 trillion (just hit that amount this last week), you can bet the debt crisis in Europe will hit here also (Click Here to see the national debt clock and other key numbers).
 
Folks, we're glad you tune in each week to get the latest MACD readings - one of the best, simplest and most easy-to-see indicators of where the markets are going.  If you have friends, family or neighbors that would like this kind of information, please forward this free market report.  Time is of the essence now, and we could be on the edge of a precipice. 

 
Be careful out there, and all the best for your health and investment portfolio. 
 
 
J.E. Rapp,
Editor-in-Charge
 
 
 
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